Is large-scale rapid CoV-2 testing a substitute for lockdowns?

BACKGROUND Various forms of contact restrictions have been adopted in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Around February 2021, rapid testing appeared as a new policy instrument. Some claim it may serve as a substitute for contact restrictions. OBJECTIVES/METHODS We evaluate the effects of a unique policy experiment: In March and April 2021, the city of Tübingen set up a testing scheme while relaxing contact restrictions. We compare case rates in Tübingen county to an appropriately identified control unit. CONCLUSIONS The experiment led to an increase in the reported case rate. This increase is robust across alternative statistical specifications. An epidemiological model that corrects for ‘more cases due to more testing’ and ‘reduced testing and reporting during the Easter holiday’ also confirms the finding.