How Will Climate Change Shift the Suitable Area of Seven Woody Bamboo Species in Nepal? Evidences from Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling

How Will Climate Change Shift the Suitable Area of Seven Woody Bamboo Species in Nepal? Evidences from Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 15 January 2025 V1 Latest version Share on How Will Climate Change Shift the Suitable Area of Seven Woody Bamboo Species in Nepal? Evidences from Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling Authors : Sushank Pokhrel 0000-0003-1170-4284 [email protected] , Prabin Neupane , Nabin Paudel , Milan Dhakal , Prakash Lamichhane , and Ananda Khadka Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173697608.88721540/v1 492 views 216 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Bamboo, a species with multiple applications in construction, manufacturing, bioengineering, and disaster recovery, is vital to rural livelihoods in Nepal. This study explores the current and future distribution of seven woody bamboo species (Bambusa balcooa, Bambusa jaintiana, Bambusa nepalensis, Bambusa nutans, Bambusa teres, Dendrocalamus hamiltonii, and Dendrocalamus hookeri) in Nepal in the face of a changing climate, as it is forcing species to relocate and find new regions in search of better habitats. We determined the suitable habitat up to 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach. Mean diurnal range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, elevation, and temperature annual range were the key environmental variables for limiting bamboo distribution. The Middle Mountains of Eastern and Central Nepal were the most climatically suitable areas for bamboo species. The response to the changing climate was unique to each species, in which B. nepalensis and D. hookeri experienced significant expansion, whereas B. balcooa and B. nutans will experience contraction in climatically suitable areas by 2090. The suitable range of other species was relatively stable. To prevent extirpation, in-situ and ex-situ conservation approaches should be implemented by identifying climate refugia in districts like Parbat, Kaski, and Lamjung, as they are suitable for six of the species. Given the lengthy and varying flowering cycles, we recommend vegetative propagation to establish bamboo in new regions. Furthermore, a strategic bamboo management plan should be developed to tackle the extirpation of bamboo species due to climate change. Supplementary Material File (bamboo_sdm manuscript final.pdf) Download 3.26 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 15 January 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License Keywords bambusa dendrocalamus ensemble modeling habitat suitability modeling ssp Authors Affiliations Sushank Pokhrel 0000-0003-1170-4284 [email protected] Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University View all articles by this author Prabin Neupane Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University View all articles by this author Nabin Paudel Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University View all articles by this author Milan Dhakal Faculty of Forestry, Agricultural and Forestry University View all articles by this author Prakash Lamichhane Ministry of Forest and Environment, Singh Durbar View all articles by this author Ananda Khadka Forest Research and Training Center View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 492 views 216 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Sushank Pokhrel, Prabin Neupane, Nabin Paudel, et al. How Will Climate Change Shift the Suitable Area of Seven Woody Bamboo Species in Nepal? Evidences from Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling. Authorea . 15 January 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173697608.88721540/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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