SAMGEP: A Novel Method for Prediction of Phenotype Event Times Using the Electronic Health Record

ABSTRACT Objective While there exist numerous methods to predict binary phenotypes using electronic health record (EHR) data, few exist for prediction of phenotype event times, or equivalently phenotype state progression. Estimating such quantities could enable more powerful use of EHR data for temporal analyses such as survival and disease progression. We propose Semi-supervised Adaptive Markov Gaussian Embedding Process (SAMGEP), a semi-supervised machine learning algorithm to predict phenotype event times using EHR data. Methods SAMGEP broadly consists of four steps: (i) assemble time-evolving EHR features predictive of the target phenotype event, (ii) optimize weights for combining raw features and feature embeddings into dense patient-timepoint embeddings, (iii) fit supervised and semi-supervised Markov Gaussian Process models to this embedding progression to predict marginal phenotype probabilities at each timepoint, and (iv) take a weighted average of these supervised and semi-supervised predictions. SAMGEP models latent phenotype states as a binary Markov process, conditional on which patient-timepoint embeddings are assumed to follow a Gaussian Process. Results SAMGEP achieves significantly improved AUCs and F1 scores relative to common machine learning approaches in both simulations and a real-world task using EHR data to predict multiple sclerosis relapse. It is particularly adept at predicting a patient’s longitudinal phenotype course, which can be used to estimate population-level cumulative probability and count process estimators. Reassuringly, it is robust to a variety of generative model parameters. Discussion SAMGEP’s event time predictions can be used to estimate accurate phenotype progression curves for use in downstream temporal analyses, such as a survival study for comparative effectiveness research.