Oceanographic connectivity strongly restricts future range expansions of critical ecosystem structuring species

Oceanographic connectivity strongly restricts future range expansions of critical ecosystem structuring species | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Oceanographic connectivity strongly restricts future range expansions of critical ecosystem structuring species Jorge Assis, Terence Legrand, Eliza Fragkopoulou, Lidiane Gouvêa, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4317425/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is anticipated to profoundly shift the distribution of marine biodiversity, yet the extent to which species can track suitable habitats remains unknown. In particular, oceanographic connectivity, the exchange of individuals mediated by ocean currents, can play a crucial role in dispersal and future range dynamics. Here, we integrate species distribution models and biophysical models to quantify the extent to which oceanographic connectivity can restrict future range expansions of marine forests of seagrasses and brown macroalgae under contrasting climate change scenarios. Our results show substantial range contractions for both groups, particularly under high emissions. Despite the potential for broad poleward range expansions that could partially offset range constrictions, oceanographic connectivity emerges as a major limiting factor, restricting potential expansion areas of newly suitable habitats by up to 8-fold for seagrasses and by 6.7-fold for brown macroalgae. These restrictions may push up to 90% of species into experiencing negative net habitat changes. Notably, connectivity barriers are well-defined at the global scale, and particularly strong in regions projected to hold extensive future suitable habitat, including the Okhotsk Sea, New Zealand, and the Arctic. Overall, our findings emphasize the need for conservation and management strategies that explicitly integrate both changing habitat suitability and oceanographic connectivity to provide the most accurate and actionable guidance for protecting marine forests in a changing climate. Oceanographic connectivity Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4317425","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":294943580,"identity":"4de1f99e-a1b5-4cf7-80d5-f206a3c9d4a3","order_by":0,"name":"Jorge Assis","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYwJcfAD6ISCojXYswgCWIkGBBvmTGDwQEQTYwW5vbexy8+5hjIG59fnfjhgQGDPL/YAQIO6zluZjlzm4HhthtvN0sAHWY4c3YCAS0z0tiMebf9Ydx24+wGkJYEg9vEaPm7zcB+84yzm38Qq4X5MeM2g8QN/L3biLSl5xgbY+82g+QZN3i3WSQYSBD2i2F7G/OHn9sMbPv7z26++aPCRp5fmpCWBgY2CTBLAqxSAr9yEJAHRs0HMIv/AGHVo2AUjIJRMDIBAB8fRk6lF6ntAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Centre of Marine Sciences (CCMAR/CIMAR LA), Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jorge","middleName":"","lastName":"Assis","suffix":""},{"id":294943581,"identity":"114e1d55-79ac-4e2e-bce9-f83ab6c04121","order_by":1,"name":"Terence Legrand","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Centre of Marine Sciences (CCMAR/CIMAR LA), Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Terence","middleName":"","lastName":"Legrand","suffix":""},{"id":294943582,"identity":"79ab542a-ee40-4160-912b-fa7096673a0c","order_by":2,"name":"Eliza Fragkopoulou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Centre of Marine Sciences (CCMAR/CIMAR LA), Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eliza","middleName":"","lastName":"Fragkopoulou","suffix":""},{"id":294943583,"identity":"d554f6b2-2712-4b4f-8c8b-8bb61b37c400","order_by":3,"name":"Lidiane Gouvêa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Centre of Marine Sciences (CCMAR/CIMAR LA), Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lidiane","middleName":"","lastName":"Gouvêa","suffix":""},{"id":294943584,"identity":"57b3de55-2eb5-4d77-8c3e-4f9626b3d9ec","order_by":4,"name":"Ester A. 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