A Lens on Fire Risk Drivers: The Role of Climate and Vegetation Index Anomalies in the May 2025 Manitoba Wildfires

In early May 2025, extreme wildfires swept across Manitoba, Canada, fueled by unseasonably warm temperatures, prolonged drought, and stressed vegetation. Using multi-source satellite data, this study analyzes April anomalies in snow cover, precipitation, temperature, LAI, NDVI, and soil moisture to assess their combined role in preconditioning the landscape for fire. Results indicate that reduced vegetative greenness, rainfall deficits, and diminished snowpack created a flammable environment prior to ignition. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate and biosphere anomalies into wildfire risk monitoring to enhance preparedness in boreal regions under accelerating climate change.