Acute effects of ambient temperature on electric bicycle accident risk at the hourly scale in Guangzhou, China

Acute effects of ambient temperature on electric bicycle accident risk at the hourly scale in Guangzhou, China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Acute effects of ambient temperature on electric bicycle accident risk at the hourly scale in Guangzhou, China Yidong Luo, Sui Zhu, Han Yue, Tao Liu, Guanhao He, Jianxiong Hu, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9406416/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 2 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Electrically assisted two-wheelers (e-bikes) have become an integral component of urban mobility in China. However, the sensitivity of e-bike accident risk to short-term meteorological variations at fine temporal scales remains underexplored. This study investigated the association between short-term hourly ambient temperature exposure and e-bike accident risk in Guangzhou, China, with particular attention to lag structure and effect heterogeneity. Using 4,041 accident records collected between 2022 and 2024, we applied a time-stratified case-crossover design combined with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to estimate temperature-associated risk while adjusting for atmospheric confounders. We found a positive association between ambient temperature and e-bike accident risk. The association was strongest within the first 1−2 hours after exposure (RR ≈ 1.023 per 1 °C increase) and gradually attenuated over the subsequent 12−14 hours. Stratified analyses showed that the association was more evident during the daytime period and in winter. Interaction analyses further suggested that the temperature-associated risk increase was more pronounced under low-to-moderate humidity and non-rainy conditions, whereas it appeared weaker under high-humidity or rainy conditions. These findings provide new evidence on the acute, hourly-scale effects of temperature on e-bike traffic safety and support the development of meteorology-informed early warning strategies for high-exposure rider groups in warming urban environments. E-bike safety Temperature exposure Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) Case-crossover design Injury risk Full Text Supplementary Files SupplementaryMartials.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editor assigned by journal 13 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 13 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9406416","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":622467035,"identity":"6c0770f6-7ac8-40c4-8879-08cd3228d864","order_by":0,"name":"Yidong Luo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jinan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yidong","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":622467036,"identity":"824cacd5-e506-4c5d-9e50-46fe307de7f7","order_by":1,"name":"Sui Zhu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jinan 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