Inertial Integration and Structural Rupture: Quantifying Geoeconomic Fragmentation, 2010–2024

Inertial Integration and Structural Rupture: Quantifying Geoeconomic Fragmentation, 2010–2024 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Inertial Integration and Structural Rupture: Quantifying Geoeconomic Fragmentation, 2010–2024 Bintul Islam, Humaira Iqbal, Owais Mujtaba Khanday This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8575431/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Does the return of geopolitical rivalry signal the end of the integrated global economic order? "Decoupling" and "friend-shoring" have dominated policy debates, but lacks clear evidence on whether the global trade network has actually fragmented along geopolitical lines. This study uses a longitudinal network analysis of bilateral trade flows from 2010 to 2024 to measure geoeconomic fragmentation. We test five hypotheses regarding strategic decoupling, connector stability, and network modularity. Our results reveal a complex "structural rupture": while the trade share between G7 and BRICS+ blocs has contracted by 21% since 2010, the global trade network remains characterized by "inertial integration"—a state where the topological core remains unified despite declining bilateral ties. However, 2024 marks a significant regime shift; for the first time in fifteen years, community detection algorithms show that trade clusters are beginning to align significantly with geopolitical affiliations (ARI = 0.28, p < 0.01). These findings suggest that while the "flat world" has collapsed, the infrastructure of globalization is governed more by logistical path dependency than by transient political alignment, with 2024 signaling the potential "re-binarization" of the international economic order Geoeconomic fragmentation Inertial integration Network analysis G7–BRICS+ rivalry Strategic decoupling Full Text Supplementary Files G7BRICSDecouplingFigure.pdf H3Modularity.pdf RLIZScore.pdf tradealignmentarizscore.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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