Integrated Adaptive Water Allocation Scenarios for a Wetland Restoration: A Case Study of Lake Marmara under Climate Change

Wetlands, as critical ecological systems, face increasing threats from anthropogenic pressures and climate change. This study investigates dynamic water allocation strategies for the restoration of Lake Marmara, a nationally important wetland within the Gediz River Basin of Türkiye, which has experienced complete desiccation in recent years. Within the scope of the PRIMA-funded “Mara-Mediterra” project, an integrated modeling approach was employed to evaluate multiple restoration scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) platform. Scenarios varied based on the initial storage capacity of Gördes Dam, irrigation demands, environmental flow priorities, and a potential water diversion investment from the Tabaklı reach. Results indicate that under current conditions, Lake Marmara's ecological water needs can be sustained without the Tabaklı investment. However, under projected 2050 climatic conditions, the Tabaklı intervention becomes increasingly beneficial, particularly when ecological demands are prioritized. Findings underscore the critical role of adaptive, case-specific, and future-oriented planning in wetland sustainability and integrated water resources management.