When Shocks Are Permanent: Port Congestion-Induced Hysteresis in Maritime Disruptions - Evidence from COVID-19, Suez, and Red Sea Crises

When Shocks Are Permanent: Port Congestion-Induced Hysteresis in Maritime Disruptions - Evidence from COVID-19, Suez, and Red Sea Crises | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article When Shocks Are Permanent: Port Congestion-Induced Hysteresis in Maritime Disruptions - Evidence from COVID-19, Suez, and Red Sea Crises Avik Ghosh, Suman Sourav This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8675932/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper quantifies how shocks at strategic maritime chokepoints propagate into global trade frictions, and when “temporary” disruptions become persistent through port-congestion hysteresis. Using high-frequency PortWatch IMF data, this study analyzes 70,728 observations across eight major chokepoints spanning 2019–2025, covering three structurally distinct disruptions: the COVID-19 demand shock, the Ever Given–induced Suez blockage, and the Red Sea security crisis. The empirical strategy combines difference-in-differences (with event-study dynamics), interrupted time-series segmented regression for recovery trajectories, and state-dependent interaction models that allow treatment effects to vary with pre-shock capacity utilisation and vessel composition. Results indicate sharp heterogeneity by shock type and cargo: COVID-19 reduces daily traffic by 16.5% and capacity by 15.9%, with container flows falling 2.8× more than dry bulk; the Suez blockage generates a sizeable but short-lived decline (≈ 7.2%) with limited persistence; and the Red Sea crisis produces a sustained contraction (≈ 3.1%) alongside route substitution. Crucially, highly utilised chokepoints recover materially more slowly (≈ 73% longer recovery windows), implying partial hysteresis, with aggregate traffic in 2024–2025 remaining below 2019 baselines. Policy implications are direct: resilience hinges on maintaining “surge” capacity at congested hubs, investing in scalable alternatives, and embedding utilisation-triggered contingency protocols into maritime governance. JEL Classifications: C23, D62, F14, F17, R41 Maritime Chokepoints Global Shipping Disruptions Vessel Traffic Analysis Interrupted time series Hysteresis and persistence Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 07 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 03 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 23 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 27 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 23 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 23 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 23 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8675932","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":581329415,"identity":"081771f4-af65-4feb-8fb2-46352d3c10a5","order_by":0,"name":"Avik Ghosh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Reserve Bank of India","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Avik","middleName":"","lastName":"Ghosh","suffix":""},{"id":581329416,"identity":"e6fd6392-8571-40a2-99c7-86dbd48c568b","order_by":1,"name":"Suman Sourav","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA40lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJADxgcJBlBmApFamA1I1sImQZQy+RnZiZ8L/tgkbm8/Y1bxoKBOnoH98AOGhztwazG4kbtZemZbWuKcMzlmNxIMDhs28KQZMCSewaNFIneDNG/D4cQZDGlpQC0HgL7IYWBIbMPnsNzNv3n+ALXwP0srSDCoS2Dgf4NfC8ON3G3SPGxALRLJxxgSDJgTGCQI2GJw5u02a962NOMZEo8PS4D80ibxzOAAXoe1526+zfPHRnYGf2Ljxx9/6uT5+ZMfPvyJz2EYgA2ID5CiYRSMglEwCkYBJgAAfgdN5PFbYp4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Science Bangalore","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Suman","middleName":"","lastName":"Sourav","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-23 06:55:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8675932/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8675932/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101751538,"identity":"f179210d-15a5-4c2b-9df9-2dfbd3c3c106","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 10:21:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2127772,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptwithoutAuthorName.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8675932/v1_covered_0f6e450f-431c-46a5-a22f-2cd975f6621e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"When Shocks Are Permanent: Port Congestion-Induced Hysteresis in Maritime Disruptions - Evidence from COVID-19, Suez, and Red Sea Crises","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":false,"email":"","identity":"maritime-economics-and-logistics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Maritime Economics \u0026 Logistics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"VoR Journals","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Maritime Chokepoints, Global Shipping Disruptions, Vessel Traffic Analysis, Interrupted time series, Hysteresis and persistence","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8675932/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8675932/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper quantifies how shocks at strategic maritime chokepoints propagate into global trade frictions, and when “temporary” disruptions become persistent through port-congestion hysteresis. 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