Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Suicidal Thinking as a Complex Dynamical System

Despite decades of research, the suicide rate is nearly identical to what it was 100 years ago. This slow progress is due (at least in part) to a reliance on verbal theories - which are difficult to evaluate, improve, and use. By contrast, theories formalized as mathematical or computational models afford greater ability to deduce what the theory predicts, making them more readily evaluated, used, and improved. We address this need in suicide research by building (to our knowledge) the first mathematical and computational model of suicidal thinking. Model simulations successfully produced - and thus explained - robust suicide-related phenomena (e.g., rapid onset, short duration, high zero-inflation of suicidal thoughts in time series data). Building on this, we describe next steps for a research program dedicated to studying suicide as a complex dynamical system, and how this may lead to genuine progress in our understanding, prediction, and prevention of suicide.