Predicting life history responses to global warming in insects: which temperature and photoperiod should be used?

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A key goal in predictive ecology is understanding how global warming affects growth and development in ectotherms. Researchers often rear organisms under constant or seasonally varying temperature and photoperiod regimes, but how these choices influence life-history traits and our interpretation of climate responses remains unclear. We examined key life history traits of the damselfly Lestes sponsa across six combinations of constant and seasonal temperature and photoperiod regimes, simulating present-day and future climates with a projected 4°C warming. Trait responses differed qualitatively and quantitatively among treatments. Mass and development responses to warming shifted direction depending on regime, the mass–development time relationship ranged from positive to absent, developmental synchrony was stronger under seasonal photoperiods, and the temperature–size rule held only under constant conditions. Our results highlight that incorporating seasonal variation is crucial for making a realistic framework for predicting species’ responses to climate change.
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Predicting life history responses to global warming in insects: which temperature and photoperiod should be used? | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 10 November 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Predicting life history responses to global warming in insects: which temperature and photoperiod should be used? Authors : Frank Johansson 0000-0002-2302-2603 , Robby Stocks , Guillaume Wos , and Szymon Sniegula 0000-0003-1459-3751 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176279189.98457324/v1 213 views 97 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract A key goal in predictive ecology is understanding how global warming affects growth and development in ectotherms. Researchers often rear organisms under constant or seasonally varying temperature and photoperiod regimes, but how these choices influence life-history traits and our interpretation of climate responses remains unclear. We examined key life history traits of the damselfly Lestes sponsa across six combinations of constant and seasonal temperature and photoperiod regimes, simulating present-day and future climates with a projected 4°C warming. Trait responses differed qualitatively and quantitatively among treatments. Mass and development responses to warming shifted direction depending on regime, the mass–development time relationship ranged from positive to absent, developmental synchrony was stronger under seasonal photoperiods, and the temperature–size rule held only under constant conditions. Our results highlight that incorporating seasonal variation is crucial for making a realistic framework for predicting species’ responses to climate change. Supplementary Material File (predicting effects of global warming ecol lett3.docx) Download 295.20 KB File (title page.docx) Download 23.86 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 10 November 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords developmental timing ectotherms experimental ecology phenotypic plasticity photoperiodism seasonal cues thermal variation Authors Affiliations Frank Johansson 0000-0002-2302-2603 Uppsala University View all articles by this author Robby Stocks Katholieke Universiteit Leuven View all articles by this author Guillaume Wos Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences PAS. View all articles by this author Szymon Sniegula 0000-0003-1459-3751 [email protected] Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences PAS. View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 213 views 97 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Frank Johansson, Robby Stocks, Guillaume Wos, et al. Predicting life history responses to global warming in insects: which temperature and photoperiod should be used?. Authorea . 10 November 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176279189.98457324/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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