Carbon Emission Prediction in a Region ofHainan Province Based on Improved STIRPAT Model

Abstract In 2020, China announced significant carbon reduction targets at the United Nations General Assembly: peaking of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Research and prediction of regional carbon emissions are crucial for achieving these dual carbon targets across China. This article aims to construct an index system for regional carbon emissions and use this index system to predict carbon emissions in a specific area of Hainan province. By analyzing the current situation of the region, the article uses the interpretable SHAP model to analyze the importance contribution and impact trends of the indicators. Based on an improved STIRPAT model and scenario analysis, the article predicts carbon emissions in the specific area of Hainan province. The results show that the growth of resident population and per capita GDP has the most significant promoting effect on carbon emissions in the region while optimizing industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and reducing energy intensity will inhibit carbon emissions. The prediction results indicate that in the natural scenario, regional carbon emissions will peak in 2035, and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is not feasible, while the baseline scenario and ambitious scenario can achieve the dual carbon targets on time or even earlier. The research results of this article provide a reference method for predicting carbon emissions in other regions and a guide for future regional emission reduction.