Potential habitat suitability analysis under climate change for the native grass, Kengyilia thoroldiana, on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract Kengyilia thoroldiana is a dominant species in the desertification area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this study, based on 88 sample points of Kengyilia thoroldiana, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method was used to analyze the current dominant factors of the distribution area of Kengyilia thoroldiana and predict its potential distribution. The results show that the training and test data area under the curve (AUC) were 0.934 ± 0.004 and 0.944 ± 0.043, respectively, which indicated the reliability of the predicted results. Based on climatic variables and the results of the “Jackknife” method, The results showed that temperature is the main cause of Kengyilia thoroldiana distribution. By simulating the potential distribution of Kengyilia thoroldiana, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the west, south, and southeast of Qinghai, southwest Gansu, and eastern Tibet. In future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for Kengyilia thoroldiana showed an expanding trend. According to the Sustainable Development (SSP126) scenario, the highly suitable areas could increase by 4.72% from 2021 to 2040 compared with the current climate scenario, and the highly suitable areas could increase by 12.71% from 2041 to 2060. An increase in the suitable areas of Kengyilia thoroldiana is essential for the ecological restoration of degraded grasslands.