The global implications of uncertainty in China's climate policy delivery

The global implications of uncertainty in China's climate policy delivery | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The global implications of uncertainty in China's climate policy delivery Dan Zhang, Steve Pye, Jim Watson, James Price, Dan Welsby This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6699194/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The delivery of China's climate policy carries substantial global implications, yet persistent gaps between policy targets and on-the-ground progress raise critical concerns about policy credibility. This study presents the first structured credibility assessment of 289 targets across 58 national climate and energy policies. It applies a morphological scenario framework to analyse the interplay between policy uncertainty, and socioeconomic and technological drivers. These scenarios are implemented in an integrated assessment model under two global contexts: one aligned with current NDCs, and another reflecting global net-zero ambition. We find that China’s timely or accelerated achievement of its net-zero target could help buffer the global consequences of insufficient ambition elsewhere. Full policy delivery to net-zero by China in 2050 reduces global CO₂ to 13 Gt, compared to 25 Gt in the absence of such policies. However, uncertainty in the delivery of China's domestic policy alone could lead to a difference in cumulative global emission reductions of up to ~600 GtCO₂ by 2100, equivalent to a ~0.2 °C warming difference. These findings illuminate the structural implications of China’s policy delivery and its global significance for climate cooperation. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Carbon and energy/Energy modelling Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIPolicyCredibilityAssessment.xlsx Supplementary Information: China Policy Review SIImplicationsofChinasclimatepolicydelivery.docx The global implications of uncertainty in China's climate policy delivery: supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6699194","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":462300248,"identity":"02e26fa7-8ff8-4ddd-8fed-2094fa462712","order_by":0,"name":"Dan 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