Predictive Accuracy of Early Warning Score 2 on Predicting Severe Morbidity and Mortality in Hospitalization for COVID-19 Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Early risk stratification tools for COVID-19 patients were indicated but little is known about their ability to effectively detect clinical deterioration among COVID-19 patients. Objectives: To assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 in predicting severe morbidity and mortality in hospitalization for COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective cohort study was performed among adult patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 who were admitted to the inpatient units at COVID-19 Martyrs Medical Military Complex and Palestinian Red Crescent Society Hospital, located at Nablus, Palestinian Authority. NEWS2 scores were measured at admission, on 6, 12, 24, and 48 hours after their admission to the hospital using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (ROC). Results: Overall, 192 adult COVID-19 patients aged 25-94 years (mean=62.1, SD=13.9) were enrolled. Of those, 49.0% were males, 47.4% were vaccinated, and 53.6% were with diabetes. The mean NEWS scores during the patient’s hospital stay were excellent predictors of mechanical ventilation, admission to the ICU, and mortality, as indicated by an AUROC of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.88-1.00, P<0.001), 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.96, P<0.001) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.92-1.00, P<0.001), respectively. The classification of 192 patients into NEWS score categories indicated that 12.5% were classified as high-risk at admission. Conclusion: The NEWS2 had moderate sensitivity and specificity in predicting the deterioration of patients with COVID-19. Our findings support the utility of NEWS2 monitoring as a sensitive approach for initially assessing COVID-19 patients. It could be helpful to improve predictive performance by supplementing the score parameters with additional measures besides the clinical judgment.