Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) Can Predict 90-Day Mortality after Gastrectomy for Cancer

Early post-operative mortality risk prediction is crucial for clinical management of gastric cancer. This study aims to predict 90-day mortality in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy using automated machine learning (AutoML), optimize models for pre-operative prediction, and identify factors influential in prediction. National Cancer Database was used to identify stage I–III gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy between 2004–2016. 26 features were used to train predictive models using H2O.ai AutoML. Performance on validation cohort was measured. In 39108 patients, 90-day mortality rate was 8.8%. The highest performing model was an ensemble (AUC = 0.77); older age, nodal ratio, and length of inpatient stay (LOS) following surgery were most influential for prediction. Removing the latter two parameters decreased model performance (AUC 0.71). For optimizing models for pre-operative use, models were developed to first predict node ratio or LOS, and these predicted values were inputted for 90-day mortality prediction (AUC of 0.73–0.74). AutoML performed well in predicting 90-day mortality in a larger cohort of gastric cancer patients that underwent gastrectomy. These models can be implemented pre-operatively to inform prognostication and patient selection for surgery. Our study supports broader evaluation and application of AutoML to guide surgical oncologic care.