A Risk-Based Framework for Regional Decarbonization: Spatial Analysis of Household Sector Vulnerabilities and Resilience Pathways

A Risk-Based Framework for Regional Decarbonization: Spatial Analysis of Household Sector Vulnerabilities and Resilience Pathways | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Risk-Based Framework for Regional Decarbonization: Spatial Analysis of Household Sector Vulnerabilities and Resilience Pathways Solomon Ekene Okeke, Yuri Pavlovich Khitev This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8760770/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The strategies for climate change mitigation and its approach are an essential aspect of disaster risk reduction (DRR), aimed at controlling the basic mechanisms of hydro-meteorological hazards intensification. This study reframes regional decarbonization of Russia's Housing and Communal Services (HCS) sector as a calculated disaster risk management peremptory. Assessment of household carbon footprints across diversified federal districts of the Russian Federation enabled us to identify the disparity in emission drivers and socio-economic susceptibility that constitute climate risk. Our methodology integrates field survey data with cost-benefit analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate region-specific policy portfolios not only for their emission reduction potential but also for their effectiveness in reducing vulnerability and building systemic resilience. We found that Moscow's per capita emissions are double those of Vladimir, driven by high aviation and automobile use, while Siberian and Ural regions like Tomsk show acute vulnerability due to coal dependence and energy poverty. Policy simulations reveal that regionally-tailored interventions—such as aviation fees in Moscow (Benefit-Cost Ratio, BCR: 4.8) and coal-to-gas transitions in Tomsk—offer superior cost-effectiveness and significant risk reduction co-benefits, including improved air quality and energy security. This study provides a replicable, risk-based framework for designing spatially-sensitive climate policies that simultaneously mitigate disaster risk and enhance socio-ecological resilience in large, heterogeneous nations. Climate Change Adaptation Disaster Risk Reduction Carbon Footprint Regional Vulnerability Resilience Planning Policy Simulation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 19 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 17 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 03 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 03 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 02 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8760770","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":586003677,"identity":"f14d56ff-09cd-4e22-b52f-e4811e352073","order_by":0,"name":"Solomon Ekene Okeke","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACHgZmECXHwHyARC3GDGwJJGpJbCBaCz/P4cMGHxjq0rez8Zh9YNxzmLAWyd625MQZDIdzd7bxGM9geEaEFoPzPMaHeRgO5G6432PMwHCAKC38nw//ATrM4BgPsVrO9jAnMzAwJxCvRbLnmLFhD8Nhw51tbMUMCQfSCWvh50l+LPGDoU7enI15M8OHA9aEtYAB4z+gC0GMBCI1QIABSapHwSgYBaNgRAEAwi4zJstqThYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Peoples' Friendship University of Russia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Solomon","middleName":"Ekene","lastName":"Okeke","suffix":""},{"id":586003678,"identity":"298228b8-fe65-439e-924a-a83e4962466c","order_by":1,"name":"Yuri Pavlovich Khitev","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Peoples' Friendship University of Russia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuri","middleName":"Pavlovich","lastName":"Khitev","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-02 05:38:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8760770/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8760770/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102295218,"identity":"026c3937-7368-4e99-9112-a1ec45667486","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-10 10:09:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":813671,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ARiskBasedFrameworkforRegionalDecarbonizationSpatialAnalysisofHouseholdSectorVulnerabilitiesandResiliencePathways.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8760770/v1_covered_23f43f6e-0d0c-4cee-8525-54b8c53c8863.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Risk-Based Framework for Regional Decarbonization: Spatial Analysis of Household Sector Vulnerabilities and Resilience Pathways ","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-disaster-science-and-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44367","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44367/3","title":"Journal of Disaster Science and Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Open","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, Carbon Footprint, Regional Vulnerability, Resilience Planning, Policy Simulation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8760770/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8760770/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe strategies for climate change mitigation and its approach are an essential aspect of disaster risk reduction (DRR), aimed at controlling the basic mechanisms of hydro-meteorological hazards intensification. This study reframes regional decarbonization of Russia's Housing and Communal Services (HCS) sector as a calculated disaster risk management peremptory. Assessment of household carbon footprints across diversified federal districts of the Russian Federation enabled us to identify the disparity in emission drivers and socio-economic susceptibility that constitute climate risk. Our methodology integrates field survey data with cost-benefit analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate region-specific policy portfolios not only for their emission reduction potential but also for their effectiveness in reducing vulnerability and building systemic resilience. We found that Moscow's per capita emissions are double those of Vladimir, driven by high aviation and automobile use, while Siberian and Ural regions like Tomsk show acute vulnerability due to coal dependence and energy poverty. 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