Failure to Replicate Burton, Harris, Shah & Hahn (2021): There is No Belief Update Bias for Neutral Events

We investigate Burton’s et al.’s, recent findings of a belief update bias for neutral events. First, we find that Burton et al. fail to replicate their own findings in three out of the four experiments they conduct. When aggregating their data over their four experiments (500 participants) the results do not support a belief update bias for neutral events. In an attempt to replicate their findings, we collect a new data set employing the original belief update task design, but with neutral events. A belief update bias for neutral events is not observed. Finally, we highlight the wide range of statistical errors and confounds in Burton et al.’s design and analysis and the misleading statements they make.