Climate Change and Risk of Arboviral Diseases in the State of Rio De Janeiro (Brazil)

Abstract Arboviral diseases are a theme of high interest in the field of public and collective health worldwide. Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya, in particular, have shown significant expansion in terms of morbidity and mortality in different portions of the ecumene. These diseases are of great interest in geographic studies due to the characteristics of their vector (Aedes aegypti), adapted to the environmental and unequal context of the urbanization process. Given this background, this study assesses the relationship between global climate change and the risk of arboviral diseases for the state of Rio de Janeiro. To this end, the characteristics of future climate susceptibility to vector proliferation in the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) were assessed using two models: Eta HadGEM2-ES and Eta MIROC5, as well as the vulnerability conditions that favor the spread of arboviruses. The results indicate that the tendency of thermal and hygrometric elevation, in association with vulnerability, may have repercussions on the intensification and spatial expansion of the risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro, since there is a spatial and temporal expansion of the optimal environmental conditions for the development of the vector.