Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese

Abstract BackgroundNo prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians.MethodsA single-center retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model and then used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we obtained a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with Nagelkerke’s R2 and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed the internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions.ResultsA total of 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020, but 11 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining patients, 68 (9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We identified 12 candidate predictors from the preoperative characteristics of the patients. The last model contained 9 predictors: surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, ability to live independently, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age and albumin are effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762–0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795.ConclusionsThis prognostic model can accurately predict a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.