Towards high-resolution modelling of energy-intensive industries: An agent-based process diffusion approach with georeferenced industry sites

Towards high-resolution modelling of energy-intensive industries: An agent-based process diffusion approach with georeferenced industry sites | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Towards high-resolution modelling of energy-intensive industries: An agent-based process diffusion approach with georeferenced industry sites Marius Neuwirth, Tobias Fleiter, René Hofmann This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4381601/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The transition towards climate-neutral industry is a challenge, particularly in heavy industries like steel and basic chemicals. Existing models for assessing industrial transformation lack spatial resolution and exogenous assumptions about process diffusion fail to capture individual investment decisions. Consequently, the spatial interplay between industry transformation, energy availability, infrastructure availability, and the dynamics of discrete investments is inadequately addressed. Here, we present an agent-based approach to model energy-intensive industries with high spatial resolution. The model considers individual industrial sites to simulate discrete investment decisions. The investment decision is modelled as a discrete choice among alternative technologies with their total cost of ownership as the main decision criterion. Process costs depend on the scenario-specific framework, policy instruments and local infrastructures. By integrating the choice algorithm into a stock approach that tracks individual vintage, the age of production units and their reinvestment cycle are considered the main restrictions on the dynamics of the transition. The results provide insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of industry transition under varying process and policy assumptions. The presented model can be applied to all regions, industry sectors and processes. We conduct an exemplary case study for a transformation pathway of the European primary steel production. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Hydrogen energy Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change mitigation hydrogen demand energy-intensive industry innovative technologies site-specific potential CO2-neutral industry Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Manuscript2024NeuwirthMethodSupplementary.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 23 Jul, 2024 Reviews received at journal 22 Jul, 2024 Reviews received at journal 27 Jun, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Jun, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jun, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Jun, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 03 Jun, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 03 Jun, 2024 Editor invited by journal 15 May, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 14 May, 2024 First submitted to journal 07 May, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4381601","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":330524667,"identity":"cc7e8c2c-0b81-4837-bd9f-af038d4a95b4","order_by":0,"name":"Marius Neuwirth","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Fraunhofer Institute for Systems \u0026 Innovation Research (ISI)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marius","middleName":"","lastName":"Neuwirth","suffix":""},{"id":330524670,"identity":"9d834272-4edd-4833-b757-5b5d8a34b101","order_by":1,"name":"Tobias Fleiter","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Fraunhofer Institute for Systems \u0026 Innovation Research (ISI)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tobias","middleName":"","lastName":"Fleiter","suffix":""},{"id":330524672,"identity":"f204d7e6-58b7-4042-9b62-2b8bed421af4","order_by":2,"name":"René Hofmann","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"TU Wien","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"René","middleName":"","lastName":"Hofmann","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-07 08:50:36","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4381601/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4381601/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-78881-7","type":"published","date":"2024-12-18T15:56:51+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":72201382,"identity":"80f94002-e80c-433f-9310-1e475b5538f3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-23 16:01:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1409803,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript2024NeuwirthMethodSubmissionv2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4381601/v1_covered_43734854-d60c-4ec2-91d6-d50da3eebfd9.pdf"},{"id":62757077,"identity":"410b76f8-4afb-44ac-a218-13b0b17a853b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-19 06:51:35","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":231938,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript2024NeuwirthMethodSupplementary.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4381601/v1/1385705c66b7151c4bef3da4.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Towards high-resolution modelling of energy-intensive industries: An agent-based process diffusion approach with georeferenced industry sites","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"hydrogen, demand, energy-intensive industry, innovative technologies, site-specific, potential, CO2-neutral industry","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4381601/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4381601/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe transition towards climate-neutral industry is a challenge, particularly in heavy industries like steel and basic chemicals. Existing models for assessing industrial transformation lack spatial resolution and exogenous assumptions about process diffusion fail to capture individual investment decisions. Consequently, the spatial interplay between industry transformation, energy availability, infrastructure availability, and the dynamics of discrete investments is inadequately addressed.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere, we present an agent-based approach to model energy-intensive industries with high spatial resolution. The model considers individual industrial sites to simulate discrete investment decisions. The investment decision is modelled as a discrete choice among alternative technologies with their total cost of ownership as the main decision criterion. Process costs depend on the scenario-specific framework, policy instruments and local infrastructures. By integrating the choice algorithm into a stock approach that tracks individual vintage, the age of production units and their reinvestment cycle are considered the main restrictions on the dynamics of the transition.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results provide insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of industry transition under varying process and policy assumptions. The presented model can be applied to all regions, industry sectors and processes.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe conduct an exemplary case study for a transformation pathway of the European primary steel production.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Towards high-resolution modelling of energy-intensive industries: An agent-based process diffusion approach with georeferenced industry sites","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-19 06:51:25","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4381601/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-07-23T06:12:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-07-22T20:06:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-06-27T07:56:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"242718093418872626384052806346420654469","date":"2024-06-24T06:05:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"95666571359208657687908763594184811716","date":"2024-06-17T07:05:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"179942737999355129201727923235671752030","date":"2024-06-05T21:16:03+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-06-03T13:11:41+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-06-03T13:09:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2024-05-15T16:46:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-05-14T10:30:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2024-05-07T08:44:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"07405527-70a1-4e03-a822-e498318f6ec9","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 19th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":34988571,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Hydrogen energy"},{"id":34988573,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks"},{"id":34988574,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change mitigation"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-12-23T15:58:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4381601","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-78881-7","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2024-12-18 15:56:51","publishedOnDateReadable":"December 18th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-19 06:51:25","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-024-78881-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-78881-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4381601","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4381601","identity":"rs-4381601","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}