Deep-time geographic dynamics of climate shape global vascular plant diversity

Deep-time geographic dynamics of climate shape global vascular plant diversity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article Deep-time geographic dynamics of climate shape global vascular plant diversity Jiaze Li, Iain Prentice This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8229707/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate has been proposed to shape global biodiversity through multiple, competing mechanisms that emphasise either magnitude, spatial distribution, or temporal stability of climatic variables, without integrating these dimensions into a unified spatio-temporal framework. Here we quantify spatio-temporal climate change in both climatic and geographic spaces by tracing when and where climatic conditions have emerged, persisted, and shifted across the Earth’s surface over the past 50 million years. We compile the most comprehensive global vascular plant diversity map to date (350,864 species) to test how deep-time geographic dynamics of climate have influenced plant diversity patterns. We find that species-rich and evolutionarily diverse plant communities are associated with climates that originated early, remained geographically extensive over long time, and experienced moderate geographic shifts. These climates are primarily warm and humid, now dominant in the tropics but previously extending into high latitudes. Models incorporating climate and its deep-time geographic dynamics explain up to 95% of the global variation in plant diversity, with geographic extent and mobility of climate contributing over half the explanatory power for species richness, turnover, and phylogenetic diversity. This work addresses a fundamental question that has long been debated regarding the spatio-temporal impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biogeography Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Palaeoecology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files nrreportingsummaryJLICPNature.pdf Reporting Summary nreditorialpolicychecklistJLICPNature.pdf Editorial Policy Checklist SIJLICPNature.pdf Supplementary Information nrreportingsummaryJiazeLi.pdf Reporting Summary Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8229707","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":570689781,"identity":"f2aa978e-9fa3-407a-943a-62bb4c68bb20","order_by":0,"name":"Jiaze 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