Revealing human sensitivity to a latent temporal structure of changes

Precisely timed behaviour and accurate time perception plays a critical role in our everyday lives, as our well-being and even survival can depend on well-timed decisions. Although the temporal structure of the world around us is essential for human decision making, we know surprisingly little about how representation of temporal structure of our everyday environment impacts decision making. How does the representation of temporal structure affect our ability to generate well-timed decisions? Here we address this question by using a well-established dynamic probabilistic learning task. Using computational modelling, we found that human subjects’ beliefs about temporal structure are reflected in their choices to either exploit their current knowledge or to explore novel options. The model-based analysis illustrates a large within-group and within-subject heterogeneity. To explain these results, we propose a normative model for how temporal structure is used in decision making, based on the semi-Markov formalism in an active inference framework. We discuss potential key applications of the presented approach to the fields of cognitive phenotyping and computational psychiatry.