Projecting nitrogen fertilizer use in Africa using empirically bounded historical drivers

Projecting nitrogen fertilizer use in Africa using empirically bounded historical drivers | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis Projecting nitrogen fertilizer use in Africa using empirically bounded historical drivers Mulako Mukelabai, Alycia Leonard, Daniel Mwendwa, Stephanie Hirmer This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8870496/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Nitrogen fertilizer is critical for Africa's future food security. However, projections often describe trends without explaining what drives change or where uncertainty matters most. Here, we developed a data-driven framework to project nitrogen fertilizer intensity across 49 African countries using economic, biophysical, and structural drivers to determine whether, where, and how fertilizer could grow within historically observed constraints. We built five region-specific models using data-driven variable selection. We then generated optimistic, pessimistic, and business-as-usual pathways using a novel scenario design that varies influential, policy-relevant drivers within historical bounds. We find strong heterogeneity across countries: many countries, for example, Chad and Nigeria, remain at low fertilizer intensity, with only a handful of countries - e.g., Ethiopia and Namibia - showing substantial potential to grow their consumption. However, across all regions, all pathways remain approximately four to five times below an equitable-diet nitrogen benchmark. Agricultural intensification drivers dominate in East Africa, value and efficiency drivers dominate in North and Southern Africa, and intensification and labor-related drivers dominate in West Africa. Finally, we show where incremental progress may help and where deeper structural changes beyond historical precedents are needed to end fertilizer poverty and which drivers are key. Scientific community and society/Agriculture Scientific community and society/Developing world Social science/Social policy fertilizer poverty nitrogen scenario analysis Africa machine learning Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryDataSet.xlsx Dataset 1 SuppInfoProjectingnitrogenfertilizeruseinAfrica.pdf SI - Projecting nitrogen fertilizer use in Africa using empirically bounded historical drivers Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8870496","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":608276390,"identity":"995c8e93-41e5-4b00-afba-1274545040f2","order_by":0,"name":"Mulako Mukelabai","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5317-9604","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mulako","middleName":"","lastName":"Mukelabai","suffix":""},{"id":608276391,"identity":"6d4c68e4-cd84-4e1d-8dc5-8f1b1645bfd9","order_by":1,"name":"Alycia Leonard","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alycia","middleName":"","lastName":"Leonard","suffix":""},{"id":608276392,"identity":"b6115745-9ef2-4931-a676-2d132a66611d","order_by":2,"name":"Daniel Mwendwa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Mwendwa","suffix":""},{"id":608276393,"identity":"8c0d9d69-4f26-4249-aea8-4dc5395e872e","order_by":3,"name":"Stephanie Hirmer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stephanie","middleName":"","lastName":"Hirmer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-13 10:12:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8870496/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8870496/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105566587,"identity":"eff38f2e-62cf-429d-ab61-c4d3c84f6969","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:56:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1289409,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ProjectingnitrogenfertilizeruseinAfrica.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8870496/v1_covered_629a7857-a9ca-46f2-99cb-8a373918ad96.pdf"},{"id":105445079,"identity":"315e852d-cb49-4ddb-9552-43bb26e686db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-26 07:03:13","extension":"xlsx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":469287,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Dataset 1","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryDataSet.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8870496/v1/f22409a5cd8f927d1439aaf6.xlsx"},{"id":105445080,"identity":"ac57a95e-2f0a-468f-9721-1ef52a720f7a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-26 07:03:13","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":9225244,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"SI - 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