Net negative carbon dioxide nickel mining examined through prospective technoeconomic assessment

Net negative carbon dioxide nickel mining examined through prospective technoeconomic assessment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Net negative carbon dioxide nickel mining examined through prospective technoeconomic assessment Phil Renforth, Dan Su, Amy L. McBride, REINALDO JUAN LEE PEREIRA, and 12 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8049102/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) must scale rapidly to meet climate targets, yet durable pathways remain limited in cost and scalability. Nickel mine tailings provide a globally abundant resource for reaction with atmospheric carbon dioxide and the recovery of critical metals. Here we show that long-term CDR cost of an integrated acid-leach, bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BPMED), and aqueous carbonation system are ~ US $ 200 tCO₂⁻¹, enabling > 100 MtCO₂ yr⁻¹ of durable removal while shifting nickel production to net-negative emissions. We apply a prospective techno-economic assessment that combines cost reductions from technology learning with modelled changes in the background socio-technical context in which the process operates. However, $ 22 billion of cumulative investment is required to breakeven by 2045, the functional equivalent of an additional US $ 154 tCO₂⁻¹, but annual profits could be on the order of $ 5–20 billion in the latter half of the century. Sensitivity analysis identifies BPMED performance as key to feasibility which offers opportunities for technology innovation. These results establish tailings-based mineralization as a scalable CDR pathway that integrates mining into global climate mitigation strategies. Scientific community and society/Business and industry/Engineering/Chemical engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ArtLatspTEASupplementaryNov2025.docx Supplementary files Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8049102","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":571651884,"identity":"80d03389-895a-4a92-b0df-6c76a78b5d62","order_by":0,"name":"Phil Renforth","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA00lEQVRIie3RsQrCMBCA4YNAu5x0jUTwFVIKglDsqxwI56LoKDjYyakP0CfRtVCwk7ujUOgLCCLoYAQnh7RuDvmnEPjIhQNwuf6wJA0uALE5SXH83Hl2ogvUAAyA0uOfCY46k7BeUbxMVHarESZDkExWYv5SRznxOBucDhHCNEwlF/ZXINip3r3UKBd7NQdBIGdpC8HqgfQm88aQbSfC4kM8Q0pD2gYTGCkk1njmkXrqKtxhQ3biZ+EVKdZ+Pm36+XozDHzWVgLia862rbhcLperSy/XXjf4aRxLCAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1460-9947","institution":"Heriot-Watt University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Phil","middleName":"","lastName":"Renforth","suffix":""},{"id":571651885,"identity":"82804231-2e01-4089-a84d-b3427f614a92","order_by":1,"name":"Dan Su","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Heriot-Watt University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dan","middleName":"","lastName":"Su","suffix":""},{"id":571651886,"identity":"6594b442-1d77-473b-9b1a-dbbe95cc9479","order_by":2,"name":"Amy L. 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Nickel mine tailings provide a globally abundant resource for reaction with atmospheric carbon dioxide and the recovery of critical metals. Here we show that long-term CDR cost of an integrated acid-leach, bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BPMED), and aqueous carbonation system are ~\u0026thinsp;US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e200 tCO₂⁻\u0026sup1;, enabling\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;100 MtCO₂ yr⁻\u0026sup1; of durable removal while shifting nickel production to net-negative emissions. We apply a prospective techno-economic assessment that combines cost reductions from technology learning with modelled changes in the background socio-technical context in which the process operates. However, \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e22\u0026nbsp;billion of cumulative investment is required to breakeven by 2045, the functional equivalent of an additional US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e154 tCO₂⁻\u0026sup1;, but annual profits could be on the order of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e5\u0026ndash;20\u0026nbsp;billion in the latter half of the century. Sensitivity analysis identifies BPMED performance as key to feasibility which offers opportunities for technology innovation. These results establish tailings-based mineralization as a scalable CDR pathway that integrates mining into global climate mitigation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Net negative carbon dioxide nickel mining examined through prospective technoeconomic assessment","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-09 05:50:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8049102/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f407cc66-983a-4e01-acab-63cc0228eadb","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 9th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":60834835,"name":"Scientific community and society/Business and industry/Engineering/Chemical engineering"},{"id":60834836,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-09T05:50:56+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-09 05:50:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8049102","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8049102","identity":"rs-8049102","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}