Beyond School Composition: Safety, Resources, and Engagement Build Mathematics Confidence Across 49 Countries

Background: Although school socioeconomic composition is widely recognizedas influencing achievement, whether it does so by fostering student confidenceremains unclear. This study examined how contextual factors build mathematicsconfidence across 49 countries. Methods: Using TIMSS 2011 Grade 4 data, I applied generalized linear mixedmodels for predictor selection and Bayesian multilevel mediation. These methodstested whether three pathways (emotional climate, material resources, and insti-tutional structures) operate through mathematics confidence to predict item-levelachievement, comparing these pathways against school composition. Results: Emotional climate emerged as the most robust pathway: school safetymediated in over half of countries, whereas mathematical enjoyment medi-ated universally. Material resources and early learning showed strong effects inEuropean and high-performing systems whereas academic emphasis contributedmodestly. School composition’s influence varied culturally, undermining confi-dence in Anglo-Saxon countries but enhancing it in Confucian Heritage systems,though appearing infrequently overall. Conclusions: These findings question composition-based interventions, whichshow limited prevalence and divergent effects, and instead emphasize modifi-able practices that build confidence across contexts. Policy priorities shoulddiffer by resources: fostering psychological safety in resource-constrained settingsand integrating emotional climate with material resources in better-resourcedsystems.