Informing manure recycling potential with an integrated indicator framework

Informing manure recycling potential with an integrated indicator framework | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Informing manure recycling potential with an integrated indicator framework Xin Zhang, Yanyu Wang, Sheri Spiegal, Eric Davidson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5798144/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Food → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Livestock production has intensified globally to meet dietary demand, leading to excessive manure nutrient loss to the environment that affects ecosystems and human health. Recycling manure back to cropland potentially mitigates nutrient pollution and curtails the use of energy-intensive fertilizers. However, methods for estimating manure surplus, defined as the difference between available manure nutrients and crop nutrient requirements, vary widely. Using the contiguous United States as a case study, estimates of nitrogen (N) in manure surplus calculated following methodologies of six peer-reviewed studies ranged from -20.2 ± 2.0 to -2.4 ± 0.3 Tg N yr -1 (negative values indicating manure availability lower than crop demand). To reconcile these large differences, we developed a framework that integrates existing and new metrics for available manure N and crop N demand. We estimate that current manure surplus in the U.S. is -12.2 ± 2.0 Tg yr -1 and that improved diffusion of current technologies could increase manure surplus by 0.8 ± 0.1 Tg N yr -1 . Collection of all manure from confined livestock, assuming enabling technological advancements, could add another 2.9 ± 0.1 Tg N yr -1 . Reducing crop demand by improving nitrogen use efficiency could further increase manure surplus by 2.5 ± 2.4 Tg N yr -1 . In combination, the gap between current manure recovery and crop N demand for synthetic fertilizers could be reduced by about 50% (6.2 ± 2.0 Tg N yr -1 ). Applied at the county level, this framework demonstrates regional variation in opportunities to improve manure recycling, which informs local and national strategies. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry/Element cycles Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SI.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Food → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5798144","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":408600962,"identity":"41dca52e-d5d1-4186-9a36-2d02a6bc048f","order_by":0,"name":"Xin Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZiBmbAAS7A0woQRitfAcIFYLA0yLBFwlAS0Gx3kPMP7cYZcnH/nGdMOPijoGfvYcA7xaJJv5EhgkzyQXG97OMbvZc+Ywg2TPG/xa+Jl5DBgM25gTN87OMbvN2HaAweAGAVvYQFoS2+oTN848A9Tyr47BnpAWsC0H2w4nzpfgAWppYGYwkCDoFx6Dg41txxM38KSV3ew5dphH4syzArxaDM6fMXz4s606cX774W03ftTUyfG3J2/AqwUEDoD1HoBweAgqhwP5BuLVjoJRMApGwQgDAJzvRXQBChl5AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1619-1537","institution":"University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xin","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":408600963,"identity":"0fdc2360-2be4-4077-ac6c-4a96194ed818","order_by":1,"name":"Yanyu Wang","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0405-9822","institution":"University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yanyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":408600964,"identity":"7c733f38-cfd0-469c-b30f-e8759dbde435","order_by":2,"name":"Sheri Spiegal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"USDA Range Management Research: Las Cruces, NM","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sheri","middleName":"","lastName":"Spiegal","suffix":""},{"id":408600965,"identity":"a1c16ae1-6a2d-4440-b881-fd2b9e962094","order_by":3,"name":"Eric Davidson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8525-8697","institution":"University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eric","middleName":"","lastName":"Davidson","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-09 16:31:35","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5798144/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5798144/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01312-5","type":"published","date":"2026-03-09T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104292667,"identity":"4d468588-3ca5-4d65-a032-c4f7615ff935","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-10 07:12:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1063485,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuresurplus01092025submission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5798144/v1_covered_649febe5-889d-4a1f-bfd7-f7a6f9671e81.pdf"},{"id":75064938,"identity":"12b5450f-2715-4f5e-9a7b-f4ca9dcae014","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-30 05:28:25","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":21827837,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"SI.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5798144/v1/5a13dd36e275e32ee7de59dd.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Informing manure recycling potential with an integrated indicator framework","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5798144/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5798144/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLivestock production has intensified globally to meet dietary demand, leading to excessive manure nutrient loss to the environment that affects ecosystems and human health. Recycling manure back to cropland potentially mitigates nutrient pollution and curtails the use of energy-intensive fertilizers. However, methods for estimating manure surplus, defined as the difference between available manure nutrients and crop nutrient requirements, vary widely. Using the contiguous United States as a case study, estimates of nitrogen (N) in manure surplus calculated following methodologies of six peer-reviewed studies ranged from -20.2 ± 2.0 to -2.4 ± 0.3 Tg N yr\u003csup\u003e-1 \u003c/sup\u003e(negative values indicating manure availability lower than crop demand). To reconcile these large differences, we developed a framework that integrates existing and new metrics for available manure N and crop N demand. We estimate that current manure surplus in the U.S. is -12.2 ± 2.0 Tg yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e and that improved diffusion of current technologies could increase manure surplus by 0.8 ± 0.1 Tg N yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e. Collection of all manure from confined livestock, assuming enabling technological advancements, could add another 2.9 ± 0.1 Tg N yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e. Reducing crop demand by improving nitrogen use efficiency could further increase manure surplus by 2.5 ± 2.4 Tg N yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e. In combination, the gap between current manure recovery and crop N demand for synthetic fertilizers could be reduced by about 50% (6.2 ± 2.0 Tg N yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e). 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