Crop Simulation Mediated Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Rice Grown Under Temperate High Altitude Valley of Kashmir

Abstract The major parameters that affect climate change pattern include the latitude, ocean currents, wind, air pressure, elevation and relief. These parameters can influence the behaviour of the crops and their performance in time and space. The study was carried out to gain the perspicacity about the prospectus of cultivation of ruling japonica rice variety, K-332 under climate change scenario for next few decades across temperate high altitude ecology (2000-2300m msl) of Kashmir valley located within North-western Himalayas. Grown over a long period of time, K-332 was released in the year 1972 and is still popular among the farmers. The variety has supported the food security in rice growing hilly and mountainous areas of the region spread across 50,000 ha area. A study was carried out with effect from the year 2000 up till 2019 for 20 years in order to understand the phenology and stability of yield performance of the variety under changing climate scenario using DSSAT CERES crop simulation model (v.4.7). Model simulated traits namely, days to anthesis, days to physiological maturity, tiller number and grain yield marked an agreement with observed data with low mean absolute error, high R2 (0.85-0.94), high modified index of agreement (0.74-0.85) and modified modelling efficiency varying from 0.47 for the traits. Our observations lead to the projections under climate change scenario and was concluded that the days to flowering and maturity were projected to decrease by 1.96-8.82 % and 2.11-9.86 %, respectively, with increase in air temperature. However, the tiller number and grain yield were predicted to increase by 3.80 and 2.37 % respectively, under RCP 2.6 during 2021-2050 to 19.00 and 8.70 % under RCP 8.5 during 2075-2099. The study revealed the scope of rice cultivation with the same variety in high altitudes with a potential to not only sustain the climate change effect but exploit it for better yield performance due to moderation of low temperature stress and the reversing of the limitations thus far posed by sub-optimal temperatures and short growing period.