Topographic blindness and the 'Flat Delta' artifact in global climate projections undermine island conservation

Topographic blindness and the 'Flat Delta' artifact in global climate projections undermine island conservation | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 20 February 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Topographic blindness and the 'Flat Delta' artifact in global climate projections undermine island conservation Authors : Ruben Barragan 0000-0003-1205-9459 [email protected] , Paula Sosa , Pierre Simon Tondreau , Juan Carlos Pérez , Francisco J. Expósito , and Juan Pedro Díaz Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177157998.80681885/v1 113 views 78 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Global biodiversity assessments rely on downscaled climate data to anticipate species responses to climate change. However, this research demonstrate that global datasets (WorldClim and CHELSA), despite high spatial resolutions, are structurally ill-suited for complex insular terrains. Through a physical audit across six volcanic archipelagos distributed worldwide, a systemic topographic blindness where models rely on rigid adiabatic lapse rates (r 40 m) is revealed. Thus, future warming scenarios in these datasets exhibit the so called ”Flat Delta” artifact, projecting climate change as a uniform scalar shift. Using the Canary Islands as a high-resolution laboratory and the Giant African Snail (Lissachatina fulica) as a model system, the present work show that replacing these global datasets with a regional physics-based model (BICI-ULL) uncovers a distinct elevation-dependent warming (r = 0.89) driven by trade wind inversion dynamics. While global models predict habitat expansion into arid lowlands, the regional model reveals the hydrological collapse of humid refugia. These results indicate that the apparent ecological breadth of island species can be an artifact of dataset resolution rather than biological tolerance. Therefore, a structural audit of climatic data should be a prerequisite for conservation modeling in complex terrain, as relying on global projections risks future managing of biodiversity. Supplementary Material File (draft_chuchangon_plantilla_wiley (1).pdf) Download 4.36 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 20 February 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords biological invasions climate refugia ecological niche modelling elevation-dependent warming island biogeography model uncertainty Authors Affiliations Ruben Barragan 0000-0003-1205-9459 [email protected] University of La Laguna View all articles by this author Paula Sosa University of La Laguna View all articles by this author Pierre Simon Tondreau University of La Laguna View all articles by this author Juan Carlos Pérez University of La Laguna View all articles by this author Francisco J. Expósito University of La Laguna View all articles by this author Juan Pedro Díaz University of La Laguna View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 113 views 78 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ruben Barragan, Paula Sosa, Pierre Simon Tondreau, et al. Topographic blindness and the 'Flat Delta' artifact in global climate projections undermine island conservation. Authorea . 20 February 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177157998.80681885/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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