Intensified atmosphere–sea ice coupling reshapes Arctic sea ice decline and downstream climate extremes

Intensified atmosphere–sea ice coupling reshapes Arctic sea ice decline and downstream climate extremes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Intensified atmosphere–sea ice coupling reshapes Arctic sea ice decline and downstream climate extremes Shaoyin Wang, Jiping Liu, Zehao Wang, Deliang Chen, Peter Braesicke, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9059403/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Despite continued global warming and progressive thinning of Arctic sea ice, the rate of September sea ice decline has slowed markedly since the 2012 record low. This apparent stabilization challenges expectations of monotonic ice loss and remains poorly understood. Here we show that the slowdown reflects a regime shift in atmosphere–sea ice coupling, rather than a weakening of atmospheric influence. Around 2004, the relationship between the June Greenland High (GH) and September Arctic sea ice extent intensified dramatically, with the correlation strengthening from r = −0.17 (1979–2003) to r = −0.80 (2004–2025). This shift coincides with the transition to a thinner, younger, and more mobile ice cover that is more responsive to atmospheric forcing, alongside enhanced intra-seasonal persistence of summer Arctic circulation. Within this strengthened coupling regime, post-2012 GH weakening accounts for approximately 60–70% of the observed slowdown in September sea ice decline. Crucially, this apparent stabilization entails pronounced downstream impacts, including intensified marine heatwaves in the Norwegian–Barents Seas, accelerated rainfall transition in the Atlantic Arctic, and amplified summer heat extremes over northern Europe. Our findings demonstrate that atmosphere–sea ice coupling is non-stationary and has fundamentally strengthened in the New Arctic, amplifying the influence of circulation variability on both sea ice trajectories and midlatitude climate extremes, with important implications for prediction and climate projections. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationGHSIE.docx Supplementary Information for “Intensified atmosphere–sea ice coupling reshapes Arctic sea ice decline and downstream climate extremes” Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9059403","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":614693744,"identity":"88e148c3-f30c-4ccc-bd6f-55c61d7bd252","order_by":0,"name":"Shaoyin 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