Predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes of pregnant mothers with syphilis based on a logistic regression model: a retrospective study

Objective: To assess whether a simple predictive model can be composed of risk factors leading to adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) in infants of syphilitic mothers during pregnancy, that can predict the APOs of newborns. Methods: : We conducted a retrospective study of 768 pregnant women with syphilis. They were required to complete a questionnaire. We analyzed the data and divided it into a training set and a test set. In the training set, we screened the predictors, constructed a prediction model and evaluated the prediction performance in the test set. Results: : Compared with the APOs group, pregnant women in the non-APOs group participated in a longer treatment course. Course, time of the first antenatal care, gestation week at syphilis diagnosis, and gestation age at delivery in weeks were independent predictors of APOs, and they were used to establish the nomogram. The AUCs of the nomogram were 0.771 (95% CI, 0.708-0.834) and 0.733 (95% CI, 0.638-0.828) in the training and testing sets, respectively. Conclusions: : Our study investigated the impact of various characteristics of syphilis pregnant women on pregnancy outcomes and established a prediction model of APOs in Suzhou. The incidence of APOs can be reduced by controlling for these risk factors.