Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard Avantika Gori, Ning Lin, Dazhi Xi, Kerry Emanuel This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-805581/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Feb, 2022 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the largest drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but current and future TC joint hazard has not been well quantified. We utilize a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides and quantify their joint hazard under historical conditions and a future (SSP5 8.5) climate projection. We find drastic increases in the frequency of exceeding joint historical 100-yr hazard levels by 2100, with a 10–36 fold increase along the southern US coast and 30–195 fold increase in the northeast. The joint hazard increase is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast due to large increases in rainfall. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence. Climatology Hydrology tropical cyclones tropical cyclones climatology rainfall-surge hazard Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Feb, 2022 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-805581","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":47137376,"identity":"a15de088-2287-4c12-b849-6456a574440c","order_by":0,"name":"Avantika Gori","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Avantika","middleName":"","lastName":"Gori","suffix":""},{"id":47137377,"identity":"aa169ed2-8a93-465e-a887-cfe8eb53a0ca","order_by":1,"name":"Ning 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We utilize a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides and quantify their joint hazard under historical conditions and a future (SSP5 8.5) climate projection. We find drastic increases in the frequency of exceeding joint historical 100-yr hazard levels by 2100, with a 10\u0026ndash;36 fold increase along the southern US coast and 30\u0026ndash;195 fold increase in the northeast. The joint hazard increase is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast due to large increases in rainfall. 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