Lucky to be alive, luckier to breed: lifetime reproduction in Weddell seals

Lucky to be alive, luckier to breed: lifetime reproduction in Weddell seals | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 11 February 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Lucky to be alive, luckier to breed: lifetime reproduction in Weddell seals Authors : Alexis Diaz 0000-0003-0749-9580 [email protected] , Jay Rotella , Kaitlin MacDonald , Wenyun Zuo , and Shripad Tuljapurkar 0000-0001-5549-4245 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177083685.52093014/v1 124 views 71 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract We utilized a long-term study of Weddell seals to compute lifetime reproductive success (LRS) distributions using a theoretical approach and an empirical approach. These comparisons are often difficult to achieve among natural populations but are important for disentangling sources of variation in lifetime measures. We performed three independent analyses: the first compared LRS and age-at-death distributions among populations living under different environmental conditions, the second focused on populations differing in individual heterogeneity (i.e., high or low reproductive strategy), and the third compared a theoretical LRS distribution with an empirical LRS distribution. Iceberg conditions increased the probability of LRS = 0 while individual heterogeneity had little influence on LRS distributions. Age-at-death distributions were also highly skewed and only early life mortality was affected by environmental condition. Our theoretical LRS distribution was strikingly similar to the empirical distribution estimated from females experiencing natural intrinsic trait variability and extrinsic environmental variability. We also examine inequality measures which show that that females must be “lucky” to survive past maturity and of those who do, only 74% breed. These findings contribute to ongoing research that reveals how diversity in lifetime outcomes is largely governed by chance alone. Supplementary Material File (diaz et al 2026.pdf) Download 1.46 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 11 February 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Authors Affiliations Alexis Diaz 0000-0003-0749-9580 [email protected] Stanford University View all articles by this author Jay Rotella Montana State University View all articles by this author Kaitlin MacDonald Montana State University View all articles by this author Wenyun Zuo Stanford University View all articles by this author Shripad Tuljapurkar 0000-0001-5549-4245 Stanford University View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 124 views 71 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Alexis Diaz, Jay Rotella, Kaitlin MacDonald, et al. Lucky to be alive, luckier to breed: lifetime reproduction in Weddell seals. Authorea . 11 February 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.177083685.52093014/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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