Climate change reshapes potential distributions and seasonal mismatch in a host–parasitoid system: Cotesia ruficrus and fall armyworm

Climate change reshapes potential distributions and seasonal mismatch in a host–parasitoid system: Cotesia ruficrus and fall armyworm | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate change reshapes potential distributions and seasonal mismatch in a host–parasitoid system: Cotesia ruficrus and fall armyworm Jeremy Gonthier, Gonzalo Avila This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9024546/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The fall armyworm ( Spodoptera frugiperda ) is a globally invasive pest, and climate change is expected to drive further redistribution of both pests and their natural enemies. We combined thermal development experiments with CLIMEX to forecast the potential distribution and seasonal activity of the parasitoid Cotesia ruficrus relative to fall armyworm under baseline climate and future A1B scenarios (2050, 2090). Development data indicated a broad thermal range for C. ruficrus (approximately 2–34°C), implying greater cold tolerance than fall armyworm. The fitted model matched occurrence records with high concordance and projected substantial climatic co-suitability across tropical to temperate cropping belts, with persistent mismatches concentrated in very hot, arid regions. Under warming, FAW-only areas expand, indicating an increasing risk of spatial decoupling in warm lowlands. Population growth potential across major production hotspots suggested earlier seasonal activity for C. ruficrus than fall armyworm, but reduced overlap during peak summer when temperatures exceeded ~ 34°C. These results indicate that C. ruficrus is likely to remain a strong biocontrol candidate in temperate and cooler regions and to contribute mainly in early-season windows in very warm climates, illustrating how mechanistic models can link species redistribution to seasonal alignment and mismatch under climate change. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Spodoptera frugiperda host-parasitoid species distribution range shift climate change CLIMEX Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SIClimatechangeinahostparasitoidsystem.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9024546","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":629294370,"identity":"b84aecaf-87df-46c9-940f-fa133a66ce48","order_by":0,"name":"Jeremy Gonthier","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Bioeconomy Science Institute Maiangi Taiao","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jeremy","middleName":"","lastName":"Gonthier","suffix":""},{"id":629294371,"identity":"2ce7b815-71a8-4564-a0b2-d3c151b1cec7","order_by":1,"name":"Gonzalo Avila","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bioeconomy Science Institute Maiangi Taiao","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gonzalo","middleName":"","lastName":"Avila","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-04 01:23:37","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9024546/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9024546/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108181713,"identity":"b6c01e44-a5b5-4bcb-8022-bb45e353cfb8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-30 08:58:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":758270,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptClimatechangeinahostparasitoidsystemIncl.Fundinginformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9024546/v1_covered_a0f579ca-0ada-4cc6-b3ce-00320ca85841.pdf"},{"id":108036504,"identity":"05415395-08e6-4a84-af6d-6fc056334d9d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 16:58:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":216395,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SIClimatechangeinahostparasitoidsystem.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9024546/v1/5af054f2f9c1321ec79ce710.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Climate change reshapes potential distributions and seasonal mismatch in a host–parasitoid system: Cotesia ruficrus and fall armyworm","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":true,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Spodoptera frugiperda, host-parasitoid, species distribution, range shift, climate change, CLIMEX","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9024546/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9024546/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe fall armyworm (\u003cem\u003eSpodoptera frugiperda\u003c/em\u003e) is a globally invasive pest, and climate change is expected to drive further redistribution of both pests and their natural enemies. We combined thermal development experiments with CLIMEX to forecast the potential distribution and seasonal activity of the parasitoid \u003cem\u003eCotesia ruficrus\u003c/em\u003e relative to fall armyworm under baseline climate and future A1B scenarios (2050, 2090). Development data indicated a broad thermal range for \u003cem\u003eC. ruficrus\u003c/em\u003e (approximately 2\u0026ndash;34\u0026deg;C), implying greater cold tolerance than fall armyworm. The fitted model matched occurrence records with high concordance and projected substantial climatic co-suitability across tropical to temperate cropping belts, with persistent mismatches concentrated in very hot, arid regions. Under warming, FAW-only areas expand, indicating an increasing risk of spatial decoupling in warm lowlands. Population growth potential across major production hotspots suggested earlier seasonal activity for \u003cem\u003eC. ruficrus\u003c/em\u003e than fall armyworm, but reduced overlap during peak summer when temperatures exceeded\u0026thinsp;~\u0026thinsp;34\u0026deg;C. These results indicate that \u003cem\u003eC. ruficrus\u003c/em\u003e is likely to remain a strong biocontrol candidate in temperate and cooler regions and to contribute mainly in early-season windows in very warm climates, illustrating how mechanistic models can link species redistribution to seasonal alignment and mismatch under climate change.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate change reshapes potential distributions and seasonal mismatch in a host–parasitoid system: Cotesia ruficrus and fall armyworm","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-28 16:58:51","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9024546/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7664cec9-2c07-4eaa-bdd3-16e55bcd8adf","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 28th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Rejected","date":"2026-04-29T05:31:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-29T04:49:06+00:00","index":61,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":66983474,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":66983475,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology"},{"id":66983476,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-29T05:40:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-28 16:58:51","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9024546","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9024546","identity":"rs-9024546","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}