A Spread Model of COVID-19 With Some Strict Anti-epidemic Measures

Abstract In the absence of specific drugs and vaccines, the best way to control the spread of COVID-19 is to adopt and diligently implement effective and strict anti-epidemic measures. In this paper, a mathematical spread model is proposed based on strict epidemic prevention measures and the known spreading characteristics of COVID-19. The equilibriums and the basic regenerative number of the model are widely analyzed. As a validation, the model is used to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China for a period of time. The model parameters are estimated and the model is validated by the actual data related to COVID-19 in Hubei. Simulation results show that themodel can accurately describe the spread dynamics of COVID-19. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is also done to provide the basis for formulating prevention and control measures.