Exogenous Shocks and the Dynamics between Geopolitics and Global Trade

In this study, we seek to uncover how exogenous shocks shape the dynamics between geopolitics and global trade. By using coupling theory, we propose that the intricate interplay between politics and trade can occurs with different nuances and degrees of coupling. We introduce four different situations of coupling, based on historical shocks. We also propose a new form of coupling, that we label as semi-coupling that can occur from shocks such as the COVID-pandemic, and possible future large climate disasters or migration flows.