Climate change may severely compromise urban forest ecosystem services across North America and Europe

Climate change may severely compromise urban forest ecosystem services across North America and Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate change may severely compromise urban forest ecosystem services across North America and Europe Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, Rachael Gallagher, Sally A. Power, Peter B Reich, and 27 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9195677/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban forests provide essential ecosystem services, including cooling, carbon sequestration, air purification, and support for human health that sustain cities worldwide. With ~70% of humanity projected to live in cities by 2050, these benefits are threatened by rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns stressing urban forests and reducing their functional performance. We assessed climate risks to 1,724 woody species across 387 North American and European cities. These urban forests, representing ~11.25 million inventoried trees and shrubs, currently store ~2.13 million metric tons of carbon and sequester ~146 thousand metric tons annually, while providing hydrological and air quality services valued at ~USD 14 billion per year. Using climatic safety margins and i-Tree Eco modelling, we project 61-82% of species exceed tolerance limits by 2050 (SSP3-7.0) across cities, driving 45% average declines across 15 ecosystem services. Some high-latitude cities face >90% losses. Warmer baseline climates, wetter warm seasons, northern latitudes, and lower tree density drive the greatest losses. Even slight exceedances create climate-service debt—gradual functional decline preceding severe failure—while large exceedances cause immediate service collapse. Our continental-scale translation of species risk to functional losses reveals severe urban forest vulnerability, closing critical gaps between climate exposure and ecosystem service outcomes. Immediate climate-adaptive planting is essential to sustain vital green infrastructure amid rapid urban expansion and warming. Ecological Modeling Terrestrial Ecology Urban Studies Climate Analysis and Modeling Air pollution mitigation Carbon sequestration Climate risk Hydrological regulation Nature-based solutions Species safety margins Urban forestry Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9195677","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":610384188,"identity":"0ffce5d8-db5a-46f9-8792-c07585da3b78","order_by":0,"name":"Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3649-2134","institution":"Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Manuel","middleName":"","lastName":"Esperon-Rodriguez","suffix":""},{"id":610384189,"identity":"2060a79c-e6f5-444d-9651-c82854f572f1","order_by":1,"name":"Rachael Gallagher","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4680-8115","institution":"Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rachael","middleName":"","lastName":"Gallagher","suffix":""},{"id":610384190,"identity":"5c46685d-c7fa-4462-a700-49b7a0b357ac","order_by":2,"name":"Sally A. 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With ~70% of humanity projected to live in cities by 2050, these benefits are threatened by rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns stressing urban forests and reducing their functional performance. We assessed climate risks to 1,724 woody species across 387 North American and European cities. These urban forests, representing ~11.25 million inventoried trees and shrubs, currently store ~2.13 million metric tons of carbon and sequester ~146 thousand metric tons annually, while providing hydrological and air quality services valued at ~USD 14 billion per year. Using climatic safety margins and i-Tree Eco modelling, we project 61-82% of species exceed tolerance limits by 2050 (SSP3-7.0) across cities, driving 45% average declines across 15 ecosystem services. Some high-latitude cities face \u0026gt;90% losses. Warmer baseline climates, wetter warm seasons, northern latitudes, and lower tree density drive the greatest losses. Even slight exceedances create climate-service debt—gradual functional decline preceding severe failure—while large exceedances cause immediate service collapse. Our continental-scale translation of species risk to functional losses reveals severe urban forest vulnerability, closing critical gaps between climate exposure and ecosystem service outcomes. 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