Distributional Drivers of Carbon Emissions in Türkiye

Air temperatures are rising rapidly, and January 2025 was recorded as the warmest January ever, underscoring the urgent need to address increasing CO₂ levels. Carbon emissions, driven by energy-intensive household consumption, are a primary contributor to the climate crisis, making strategies for reducing emissions and transitioning to a low-carbon economy critical. Households account for a significant share of global emissions, and in Türkiye, rapid population growth and evolving consumption patterns have intensified energy demand. This study investigates two key research questions: (1) the relationship between household income distribution and the carbon footprint, and (2) how variations in consumption patterns influence the carbon footprint. Employing the PRICES microsimulation model (O’Donoghue et al., 2023), we integrate detailed expenditure data from Türkiye’s 2019 Household Budget Survey with a 2016 Input-Output table from the World Input-Output Database to simulate both direct and indirect CO₂ emissions. This study focuses on, understanding household distributional drivers of carbon emission.