Forecasting the groundwater scenario in Punjab: An ARIMA modelling

This paper assessed the extent of groundwater exploitation and predict its future scenario in Punjab using the ARIMA modelling technique. The district-wise estimates of the groundwater table of Punjab state were derived from the block-wise information on net annual groundwater availability, net annual draft, groundwater table and stage of groundwater development. Furthermore, the forecasting had been done primarily based on an Expert Modeller of the ARIMA modelling technique. The results concluded that based on the trends of groundwater depletion in the past five decades, the over-exploited groundwater region of the Punjab state has doubled. This scenario of groundwater over-exploitation is due to increased demand for irrigation water in concern of increase in crop intensity and rice-wheat monoculture, as the surface water resources were limited and have deteriorated over time. Further, the ARIMA modelling of the groundwater table had forecasted a major decline in the groundwater table in Sangrur, Patiala, Moga, Fatehgarh Sahib, Ludhiana and Kapurthala districts of Punjab with the increase in time.