Modelling the rise of invasive lionfish in the Mediterranean

Abstract The spread of the Indo-Pacific lionfish Pterois miles into the Atlantic Ocean represents a well-known example of a successful invasion. Lionfish have successfully invaded the Atlantic, aided by biological traits such as high thermal tolerance, adaptability to various salinities, high fecundity, conspicuous defenses, and generalist feeding habits. The Mediterranean Sea is now experiencing an early-stage lionfish invasion, spreading westward from the eastern Mediterranean, likely through the Suez Canal. Using ecological niche modelling under various climate scenarios, we predict the potential spread of lionfish, identifying regions from low to high habitat suitability. Predictions indicate significant expansion, especially in the eastern and central Mediterranean, under greater warming scenarios. This expansion could lead to substantial declines in native species, decimation of commercially important fish stocks, and trophic cascades, severely impacting local economies and marine biodiversity. Urgent understanding and management of lionfish impacts in the Mediterranean are essential, given their established presence in the western Atlantic and documented ecological consequences.