HOW CONCERNING IS A SARS-COV-2 VARIANT OF CONCERN? COMPUTATIONAL PREDICTIONS AND THE VARIANTS LABELING SYSTEM

ABSTRACT We herein report a study to evaluate the use of computational prediction of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variations in improving the current variants labeling system. First, we reviewed the basis of the system developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the labeling of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants and the adaptations made to it by the United States Center of Diseases Control (CDC). We observed that the labeling system is based upon the virus’ major attributes. However, we found that the labeling criteria of the SARS-CoV-2 variants derived from these attributes are not accurately defined and are used differently by the two health management agencies. Consequently, discrepancies exist between the labels given by WHO and CDC to same variants. Our observations suggest that giving the VOC label to a new variant is premature and might not be appropriate. Therefore, we carried out a comparative computational study to predict the effects of the mutations on the virus structure and functions of five VOCs. By linking these data to the criteria used by WHO and the CDC for variant labeling, we ascertained that comparative computational predictions of the impact of genetic variations are a better ground for rapid and more accurate labelling of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We propose to label all emergent variants VUM or VBM and to carry out computational predictive studies and thorough variants comparison, upon which more appropriate and informative labels can be attributed. Furthermore, harmonization of the variants labeling system would be globally beneficial to communicate about and fight COVID-19 pandemic.