Does a Pandemic Increase Religiosity in a Secular Nation? A Longitudinal Examination. PREPRINT VERSION 2.

The COVID-19-pandemic offers a unique, if tragic, opportunity to assess the impact of a worldwide crisis on religion. Theories from various disciplines including the psychology of religion and cultural evolution suggest that crises cause higher levels of religiosity. However, such theories also predict that levels of religiosity should remain stable in the context of well-functioning governments, secular institutions and norms that might address social, epistemic, and material needs in a crisis. While the relationship between crisis and religion have been examined in countries with higher levels of religiosity, it has yet to be extensively empirically assessed in countries with lower levels of religiosity. Here, on the basis of explicit causal assumptions and using Bayesian multilevel modeling, we analyze quasi-representative longitudinal data from Denmark collected over the course of the pandemic from May 2020 to December 2021. Our analysis shows that self-reported religiosity did not increase during the pandemic on average, an inference that is robust to a range of model specifications, including full Bayesian imputation of missing covariates and poststratification. We discuss possible interpretations of this finding and argue for an emphasis on cultural context going forward in theorizing on crises and religion.