Saturation of influenza virus neutralization and antibody consumption can both lead to bistable growth kinetics

ABSTRACT Influenza virus is a major human health threat. Neutralizing antibodies elicited through prior infection or vaccination play an irreplaceable role in protection from subsequent infection. The efficacy of antibody-dependent vaccines relies on both virus replication and neutralization, but their quantitative relationship was unknown. Here we use mathematical models to quantitatively investigate viral survivability determined by antibody concentration and inocula size. We performed focus reduction assays for 49 seasonal influenza A/H3N2 viruses circulating during 2017–2019 against influenza antisera raised in ferrets, and find that the antibody consumption rates of individual reactions were either small or large, and this was strongly positively correlated with virus saturation. Regardless of antibody consumption rate, virus-antibody interactions always lead to antibody-induced bistable viral kinetics. As a result, at a specific interval of antibody concentration, small viral inocula are eliminated but not large virus inocula, which is triggered by saturated virus neutralization or antibody consumption. Our finding highlights virus-antibody interaction with different antigenic properties, thereby explaining commonly observed influenza re-infection and enhancing vaccine efficiency.