Forecasting the Future Demand for Containerized Inland Shipping on the Traditional Rhine

Inland container shipping is confronted with significant challenges, both on the demand and supply side. In line with the 2019 Green Deal’s ambitious goals and 2020 Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, the European Commission (2021b) presented an ‘Inland Waterway Transport Action plan 2021-2027’ with the target of shifting more freight across inland waterways. These challenges, reinforced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ‘Fit for 55’ ambitions of Europe, raise interest in what will happen in the future inland navigation market (European Commission, 2021a). Therefore, this research focuses on the following main research question: How will the demand for inland container transport evolve until the end of 2023 on the traditional Rhine? This study first identifies the market drivers for containerized inland navigation to answer this research question. Secondly, the SARIMAX method comes out as the best and is further applied. The findings suggest that the IWT container market does not recover from the breakpoint in 2018M08 the demand for IWT container transport is expected to decline. The research might act as a decision tool for analysis, management and planning for policymakers and stakeholders.