Bayesian modeling of HFC production pipeline suggests growth in unreported CFC by-product and feedstock production

Bayesian modeling of HFC production pipeline suggests growth in unreported CFC by-product and feedstock production | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Bayesian modeling of HFC production pipeline suggests growth in unreported CFC by-product and feedstock production Stephen Bourguet, Megan Lickley This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4718479/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Observationally-derived emissions of regulated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) must be scrutinized to maintain the progress made by the Montreal Protocol in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer. Recent observations of three chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115, suggest that emissions of these compounds have been higher than expected given global reporting. These emissions have been associated with hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production, which can require CFCs as feedstocks or generate CFCs as by-products, yet emissions from these pathways have not been rigorously quantified. Here, we develop a Bayesian framework to jointly infer emissions of CFC-113, CFC-114, CFC-115, and hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-133a during HFC-134a and HFC-125 production. We estimate that feedstock usage in HFC-134a production accounted for 86% (75--92%) and 62% (46--74%) of CFC-113 and CFC-114 emissions, respectively, from 2015--2019, while by-product generation during HFC-125 production accounted for 81% (68--92%) of CFC-115 emissions. Our results suggest that unreported feedstock production in Article 5 countries may explain the unexpected atmospheric growth rates of CFC-113 and CFC-114, although uncertainties within the chemical manufacturing processes call for further investigation and industry transparency. Nonetheless, this work demonstrates the environmental benefits of tightened ODS feedstock regulations and underscores the importance of the HFC production phasedowns scheduled by the Kigali Amendment. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files HFCpipelineSINatComs.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4718479","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":330678267,"identity":"47a61077-4fa3-4c80-af32-e5aa2d469ece","order_by":0,"name":"Stephen Bourguet","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Georgetown University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stephen","middleName":"","lastName":"Bourguet","suffix":""},{"id":330678268,"identity":"a849d44d-186f-4f03-9fff-19b3ca97ad13","order_by":1,"name":"Megan Lickley","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5810-8784","institution":"Georgetown University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Megan","middleName":"","lastName":"Lickley","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-10 13:55:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4718479/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4718479/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55250-6","type":"published","date":"2024-12-30T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":72685535,"identity":"7fc59307-e710-495e-b723-6a6421d36916","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-31 08:10:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1098516,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"HFCpipelineNatComs.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4718479/v1_covered_01849cf0-736f-46b6-82db-7830f2fd9711.pdf"},{"id":60959556,"identity":"926bf833-cfc5-4412-b164-3c5d371b0d4b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-24 04:22:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":401117,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"HFCpipelineSINatComs.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4718479/v1/afe751279219fcf373943eec.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Bayesian modeling of HFC production pipeline suggests growth in unreported CFC by-product and feedstock production","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4718479/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4718479/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Observationally-derived emissions of regulated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) must be scrutinized to maintain the progress made by the Montreal Protocol in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer. 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