Epidemic Analysis of Peste Des Petits Ruminants in India

Background: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a serious disease that damages goats, sheep and other small ruminants. As one of the earliest and most serious countries, PPR has seriously threatened India's animal husbandry economy. Results: In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the PPR outbreak were analyzed. Between 2010 and 2018, the epidemic in India broke out all over the country in a cluster distribution. Herd concentration in southern India is an area with high mortality of PPR, and the outbreak time of PPR has significant seasonality. Then, the analysis of the development and transmission of the disease showed that under the natural infection conditions without control measures, India reached the outbreak peak within 15 days. Finally, scenario tree quantitative risk analysis showed that the average probability of infecting PPRV in live sheep exported from India was 1.45×10 -4 . Conclusions: This study analyzed the prevalence of PPR in India. The analysis of transmission dynamics on the development of the epidemic provides a reference for the prevention and control of the epidemic. At the same time, it provides risk analysis and suggestions on trade measures for the trading countries of India.