Hurricane Disturbance Leads to Elevated Wildfire Activity in the Gulf Coast Region U.S.A.

Hurricane Disturbance Leads to Elevated Wildfire Activity in the Gulf Coast Region U.S.A. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Hurricane Disturbance Leads to Elevated Wildfire Activity in the Gulf Coast Region U.S.A. Harper Steele, Richard Vachula, Peter Ryan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9107210/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Building on long-standing hypotheses of a hurricane-fire interaction, this study assesses empirical evidence for hurricane-driven increases in wildfire activity along the Gulf Coast of the United States. It has been proposed that wildfire risk is elevated post-hurricane due to increased fuel accumulation and alterations to forest microclimates associated with treefall (e.g., increased radiation, temperature, aridity). While isolated studies have identified evidence supporting this relationship using premodern proxy data, an analysis using modern empirical data is lacking. This study addresses this gap by using spatial analysis of contemporary hurricane and wildfire data to evaluate changes in wildfire activity following hurricane landfall events. Eighteen hurricanes that made landfall between 1992 and 2020 (Category 2 to 5) were analyzed alongside wildfire data surrounding their path of destruction from the five years before and after each storm. On average, in the five years after hurricanes, increases were seen in the size of wildfires (40%), number of wildfires (62%), and total area burned (147%). Temporal variation was also apparent, with most wildfire activity occurring within 2-3 years following hurricanes, though this varies by region along the coastline. Of the three regions studied, the Florida Peninsula experienced the largest increase in wildfire activity. These results support the hypothesis of a hurricane-fire interaction and demonstrate that hurricanes continue to influence Gulf Coast fire regimes in the modern era, despite widespread fire suppression and prescribed burning efforts. Hurricanes Wildfires Fire management Climate change Gulf of Mexico Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 12 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9107210","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":619070393,"identity":"abd3e4a1-1ec5-479f-bf92-6ea01906a259","order_by":0,"name":"Harper Steele","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAyQ24wEGAzY5EOvAA2K08IBUMlTwGYO1JBCv5YxcYgOIh0+LOfvZZw8+7mGwt2dvPnDgY5tZ+vywww+BttjJ6TZg12LZk25uOOMZQ2IPz7GEgzPb0nI33k4zAGpJNjY7gMNhB9LYpHkOMCTwSOQYHOZtO5a7cXYCSMuBxG24tJx/xib95wCDPY/8+w+H/7b9Tzecnf4Bv5YbQFuA/mbskeBhOMxwhi1BXjqHgC03nrEb9hyQSOw5k2ZwsKeCzXCDdE7BgQQDPH45n8b24McBG3v29sMPH/wwYJOXn52++cOHCjs5XFqAgA2IJZADBEziVA7TggTkG/CqHgWjYBSMghEIAEUAZJjqdLeHAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7977-2591","institution":"Middlebury College","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Harper","middleName":"","lastName":"Steele","suffix":""},{"id":619070394,"identity":"f6a68ffe-cd54-4ff4-9b9f-749949386880","order_by":1,"name":"Richard Vachula","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Auburn University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Richard","middleName":"","lastName":"Vachula","suffix":""},{"id":619070395,"identity":"c573a75a-4d0f-4c52-ae19-8b1ac72ff0ef","order_by":2,"name":"Peter Ryan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Middlebury College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Ryan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-12 17:07:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9107210/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9107210/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106961076,"identity":"9c66f538-8012-41d0-a383-84540f3e656b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-15 09:24:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":834724,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SteeleetalMS.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9107210/v1_covered_3b104290-1feb-4111-97e2-c544204fa534.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Hurricane Disturbance Leads to Elevated Wildfire Activity in the Gulf Coast Region U.S.A.","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Hurricanes, Wildfires, Fire management, Climate change, Gulf of Mexico","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9107210/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9107210/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Building on long-standing hypotheses of a hurricane-fire interaction, this study assesses empirical evidence for hurricane-driven increases in wildfire activity along the Gulf Coast of the United States. 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