Spatial Downscaling of Multivariate Disease Risk

Spatial Downscaling of Multivariate Disease Risk | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatial Downscaling of Multivariate Disease Risk David Payares-Garcia, Frank Osei, Jorge Mateu, Alfred Stein This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7177283/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in International Journal of Health Geographics → Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Downscaling areal health data to a finer resolution is important for understanding the intricate spatial patterns of disease. It helps to identify shared risk factors and to develop targeted public health interventions. This paper introduces Area-to-Area (ATA) and Area-to-Point (ATP) Poisson cokriging for downscaling spatial disease risks from aggregated areal data. The methodology addresses key challenges by incorporating correlation between the diseases, adjusting for population heterogeneity, and the varying shapes and sizes of the spatial entities. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of ATA and ATP Poisson cokriging compared to their univariate counterparts. We achieved lower mean squared prediction errors and better preserved small-scale spatial variations. The methods are applied to COVID-19 and asthma occurrences in Bogota, Colombia. They reveal more detailed hotspots and coldspots and refined estimates of COVID-19 risk by leveraging its correlation with asthma. Our methods offer advantages in multivariate disease mapping by enabling more accurate risk assessment, improved small-area estimation, and enhanced understanding of spatial disease patterns. Their ability to downscale risks for multiple diseases simultaneously provides valuable insights for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation. cokriging counts disease mapping downscaling multivariate Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in International Journal of Health Geographics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 19 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 11 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 30 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 23 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 23 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 21 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7177283","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":492791542,"identity":"2b951ab7-30ca-419b-9b10-3a83e03b4eb5","order_by":0,"name":"David Payares-Garcia","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University of Twente","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Payares-Garcia","suffix":""},{"id":492791544,"identity":"5027202c-12be-4412-8bca-396b0ebffed3","order_by":1,"name":"Frank Osei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Twente","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Frank","middleName":"","lastName":"Osei","suffix":""},{"id":492791545,"identity":"50f61e9e-749a-4871-8097-d33fb8e2ca7c","order_by":2,"name":"Jorge Mateu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University Jaume I","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jorge","middleName":"","lastName":"Mateu","suffix":""},{"id":492791547,"identity":"e2ec7fc7-e3b3-49f1-ac0e-5093b546b9e9","order_by":3,"name":"Alfred Stein","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Twente","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alfred","middleName":"","lastName":"Stein","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-21 12:08:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7177283/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7177283/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-025-00450-6","type":"published","date":"2026-01-23T15:57:35+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101151840,"identity":"8743075a-b6b7-4a01-992a-ad6fab449421","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-26 16:06:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1104700,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SpringerNatureLaTeXTemplateATAPaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7177283/v1_covered_10d8f5f4-0377-415e-a326-0c2192965442.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Spatial Downscaling of Multivariate Disease Risk","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"international-journal-of-health-geographics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ijhg","sideBox":"Learn more about [International Journal of Health Geographics](http://ij-healthgeographics.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"12942","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12942/3","title":"International Journal of Health Geographics","twitterHandle":"@IJHGeo","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"cokriging, counts, disease mapping, downscaling, multivariate","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7177283/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7177283/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDownscaling areal health data to a finer resolution is important for understanding the intricate spatial patterns of disease. 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