Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Abstract Energy models are used to study mitigation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization, and level of detail, which yield differences in the computed mitigation pathways. To interpret model differences, diagnostic indicators are already common practice in many scientific fields, e.g., physical climate science1,2. However, they have not been applied systematically yet in climate mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions3,4. We address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: 1) model responsiveness, 2) mitigation strategies, 3) energy supply, 4) energy demand, and 5) mitigation costs and efforts, each expressed in several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight leading energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Expressing the indicators relative to the full model-scenario ensemble yields a comprehensive “energy model fingerprint” that reveals patterns among models and indicators, and can be used to contextualize model differences in future model intercomparison studies.