Assessing Climate-Human Feedback Using a Coupled Earth-Human System Model

Assessing Climate-Human Feedback Using a Coupled Earth-Human System Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing Climate-Human Feedback Using a Coupled Earth-Human System Model Kaoru Tachiiri, Ken’ichi Matsumoto, Xuanming Su, Tokuta Yokohata, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7738235/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Current future projections often adopt a sequential approach: developing socioeconomic scenarios through Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), running climate models based on these scenarios, and subsequently applying the outputs to impact assessment models. However, this framework overlooks feedbacks between the climate and human systems, particularly how climate impacts influence human activities, which in turn affect Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other emissions and further alter the climate. To address this limitation, a loosely coupled Earth-human system model was developed to quantitatively evaluate such feedbacks. The model incorporates key interaction processes, including changes in labor productivity, agricultural productivity, and energy demand for heating and cooling in response to climate change. These processes were parameterized using established formulations from previous studies. CO 2 emissions are endogenously determined by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that accounts for feedback effects. For other radiative forcings, the SSP3-7.0 scenario with low near-term climate forcers (NTCF) was applied. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) setting, the CO 2 emissions projected by the CGE model closely matched the SSP3-7.0 trajectory. The results indicate that all three feedback processes contributed to atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2100, with changes of approximately 20-30 ppm. Among the processes considered, only the labor productivity feedback reduced CO 2 concentrations, whereas the other two processes resulted in increases. Overall, the total feedback effect was estimated to be about one-quarter the magnitude of the natural Earth system feedback and, in contrast to the previous study, exhibited the same directional effect. Further investigation is warranted to assess the cumulative effects of these feedback mechanisms, the uncertainties associated with each process, and the contribution of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases. Climate Analysis and Modeling Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files tachiirietalSI.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7738235","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":521984290,"identity":"63c3bba6-4bf2-40fc-8697-a0ec7f1aaf03","order_by":0,"name":"Kaoru 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However, this framework overlooks feedbacks between the climate and human systems, particularly how climate impacts influence human activities, which in turn affect\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCarbon dioxide (CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e) and other emissions and further alter the climate. To address this limitation, a loosely coupled Earth-human system model was developed to quantitatively evaluate such feedbacks. The model incorporates key interaction processes, including changes in labor productivity, agricultural productivity, and energy demand for heating and cooling in response to climate change. These processes were parameterized using established formulations from previous studies. CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions are endogenously determined by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that accounts for feedback effects. For other radiative forcings, the SSP3-7.0 scenario with low near-term climate forcers (NTCF) was applied. 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